Prediksi Dampak Pengembangan Kawasan Industri Maloy Terhadap Perekonomian Kaltim

Upaya transformasi ekonomi Kalimantan Timur dari perekonomian yang saat ini berbasis unrenewable resources menuju kepada perekonomian yang berbasis renewable resources telah dicanangkan melalui visi daerah bertajuk Kaltim Maju  2018 yang tertuang dalam RPJMD Kalimantan Timur 2014-2018 : “Terwujudnya Kalimantan Timur Sejahtera yang Merata dan Berkeadilan Berbasis Agroindustri dan Energi Ramah Lingkungan”. Salah satu strategi untuk mewujudkan visi tersebut adalah dengan mengembangkan industri hilir kelapa sawit. Sesuai dengan amanah Inpres Nomor 1 Tahun 2010 lokasi pembangunan kawasan industri tersebut kemudian ditetapkan di Kabupaten Kutai Timur, yang selanjutnya dikenal dengan Kawasan Industri Maloy.

Iklim investasi di Kawasan Industri Maloy diprediksi akan terus meningkat, terlebih setelah ditetapkannya Maloy sebagai Kawasan Ekonomi Khusus (KEK) melalui Peraturan Pemerintah Nomor 85 Tahun 2014. Pada masa yang akan datang, kawasan industri ini diprediksi akan memegang peranan strategis bagi perekonomian wilayah, baik dalam lingkup nasional (khususnya Indonesia Timur), maupun daerah. Hal ini kemudian menjelaskan mengapa kajian mengenai dampak pembangunannya terhadap perekonomian wilayah penting untuk dilakukan. Tujuan utama penelitian ini adalah untuk menganalisis prediksi dampak yang ditimbulkan dari pembangunan Kawasan Industri Maloy terhadap penciptaan output, nilai tambah bruto, pendapatan masyarakat, dan tenaga kerja.

Perkiraan total nilai investasi yang ditanamkan di Kawasan Industri Maloy dalam kurun waktu tahun 2012-2025 akan mencapai Rp.21.534.028.560.000,- yang terdiri dari investasi di bidang infrastruktur, industri hulu dan hilir kelapa sawit, serta komoditas kelapa sawit. Melalui metode Analisis Input-Output, telah diketahui bahwa dampak total yang ditimbulkan dari investasi tersebut terhadap penciptaan output adalah sebesar 5,18%, Nilai Tambah Bruto sebesar 4,16% , Pendapatan Masyarakat 4,42%, dan Tenaga Kerja sebesar 17,34%. Kemudian jika dilakukan simulasi investasi terhadap 3 (tiga) skenario pola investasi dengan nilai yang sama, diketahui bahwa strategi dengan berfokus pada pengembangan sektor industri makanan dan minuman (CPO, PKO, minyak goreng) serta industri pupuk, kimia, dan karet (oleokimia, biodiesel, produk sampingan PKS) merupakan strategi yang paling menguntungkan bagi perekonomian Kalimantan Timur.

Penjelasan dari masing-masing skenario yang disusun dalam penelitian ini dapat dijelaskan sebagai berikut :

  1. Skenario 1 (satu) menjelaskan pilihan strategi untuk tetap mendistribusikan investasi ke dalam sektor (21) industri makanan dan minuman serta sektor (25) industri pupuk, kima dan karet, dimana nilainya masing-masing dibagi rata. Argumen yang digunakan disini adalah bahwa pengembangan Kawasan Industri Maloy akan tetap didasarkan pada klaster industri berbasis kelapa sawit.
  2. Skenario 2 (dua) menjelaskan pilihan strategi untuk mendistribusikan nilai investasi ke dalam 8 (delapan) sektor industri pengolahan, dimana nilainya ditentukan berdasarkan bobot share terhadap pembentukan nilai output pada tabel IO. Pada skenario ini sektor (27) industri logam dasar, besi dan baja tidak mendapatkan shock investasi karena tidak memiliki share output dalam kondisi eksisting perekonomian. Nilai investasi terbesar diberikan kepada sektor (25) industri pupuk, kimia, dan barang dari karet.
  3. Skenario 3 (tiga) menjelaskan pilihan strategi untuk mendistribusikan nilai investasi kepada 8 (delapan) sektor industri pengolahan, dimana nilai investasi di sektor (21) dan (25) dibuat 2 (dua) kali lebih besar daripada nilai investasi di sektor-sektor industri lainnya. Pertimbangannya adalah adanya incentive yang lebih besar dari kedua sektor tersebut sebagai bentuk keberhasilan kegiatan industri sejenis sebelumnya.

Sedangkan  rekomendasi kebijakan yang dapat diberikan dari hasil penelitian adalah :

  1. Hasil prediksi dampak yang ditimbulkan dari pembangunan Kawasan Industri Maloy dapat melebihi hasil perhitungan dari penelitian ini, baik terhadap nilai secara keseluruhan, maupun nilai dalam setiap tahap pembangunannya. Hal tersebut dapat dicapai salah satunya dengan peningkatan realisasi nilai investasi, terlebih setelah ditetapkannya Maloy sebagai Kawasan Ekonomi Khusus. Untuk memberikan incentive kepada investor, maka perlu dilakukan : percepatan penyelesaian infrastruktur dasar industri, peningkatan manfaat aglomerasi, kemudahan proses perizinan, pemberian tax holiday kemudahan ekspor-impor, dan lain-lain;
  2. Pemerintah hendaknya dapat mendorong sektor-sektor yang memiliki keterkaitan erat dengan investasi di Kawasan Industri Maloy untuk menjadi sektor kunci perekonomian. Hal tersebut dapat dilakukan dengan memperkuat forward linkage sektor (21) industri makanan dan minuman melalui penyediaan fasilitas hilirisasi industri serta meningkatkan backward linkage sektor (25) industri pupuk, kimia, dan karet dengan memperhatikan ketersediaan dan kualitas bahan baku sebagai input produksi;
  3. Berkenaan dengan rencana pengembangan klaster industri di Kawasan Industri Maloy, jika tujuannya adalah agar penciptaan output dan tenaga kerja optimal, maka usulan strategi pola investasi yang direkomendasikan adalah Skenario 1 (satu). Namun, jika tujuannya adalah agar pendapatan masyarakat optimal, maka strategi pola investasi yang direkomendasikan adalah Skenario 2 (dua). Tujuan penciptaan NTB optimal dapat dipenuhi baik melalui Skenario 1 (satu) maupun Skenario 2 (dua).

 

foto-alf

Penulis : Alfino Rinaldi Arief – MPKP Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Indonesia
Editor : Eni Ariyanti

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