Penurunan Harga Minyak Mentah Internasional: Menguntungkan atau Merugikan?

Ekonomi dunia saat ini diwarnai oleh tiga kejadian penting, yaitu harga minyak dunia yang rendah, dolar yang menguat drastis, dan revolusi shale gas oleh Amerika Serikat. Harga minyak mentah internasional telah menyentuh ke level USD 45 per barel. Sejak akhir tahun 2014 harga minyak bumi menunjukkan trend penurunan yang signifikan. Dalam sejarah historis harga BBM di era reformasi, baru terjadi penuruan harga BBM sampai dua kali sampai saat ini. Apakah penurunan harga miyak bumi internasional ini akan menguntungkan atau merugikan bagi Indonesia ? Hal inilah yang perlu dikaji secara mendalam.

Secara historis, penurunan harga minyak bumi pernah dialami tahun 1980-an ketika minyak diproduksi besar-besaran menyusul kenaikan harga minyak yang tajam di tahun 1970 dan melambatnya aktivitas ekonomi dunia akibat krisis energi tahun 1973. Penurunan harga minyak pada saat itu telah menurunkan inflasi dan pengangguran di dunia. Jatuhnya harga minyak saat itu menguntungkan negara-negara konsumen minyak seperti Amerika Serikat, Eropa, dan Jepang juga negara-negara berkembang, Namun hal itu menyebabkan kerugian bagi negara-negara produsen minyak OPEC negara Eropa Utara, Uni Soviet, dan Amerika Latin seperti Venezuela dan Mexico.

Revolusi Shale Gas di Amerika Serikat

Penurunan harga minyak bumi kali ini terjadi menyusul ekspansi produksi shale gas oleh Amerika Serikat. Ekspansi shale gas oleh Amerika Serikat telah mengubah trend harga minyak dunia dan mengubah peta energy mix. Shale gas adalah gas alam yang diperoleh dari serpihan batu shale atau terbentuknya gas bumi. Shale gas sebagian besar terdiri atas metana merupakan gas alam non konvensional. Gas alam konvensional biasanya ditemukan di cekungan lapisan bumi di kedalaman sekitar 800 meter atau lebih, sedangkan shale gas ditemukan di lapisan bebatuan (shale formation) di kedalaman lebih dari 1500 meter. Karena ada di lapisan bebatuan maka diperlukan proses khusus untuk mengambilnya yaitu proses rekah hidrolik. (Yudianto, 2013).

Amerika diperkirakan memiliki 1000 triliun kaki kubik shale gas yang diperkirakan dapat memenuhi kebutuhan gas Amerika selama 50 tahun atau lebih. Indonesia pun diperkirakan memiliki cadangan shale gas sebesar 1000-2000 tfc sebuah angka yang cukup besar. Jika itu jadi diwujudkan tentu pengembangan energi terbarukan baik di Indonesia maupun di dunia akan semakin lambat.

Revolusi shale gas ini akan berdampak sangat besar dan bagi Amerika akan sangat menguntungkan karena dapat membuka jutaan lapangan pekerjaan baru dan membantu Amerika pulih dari krisis ekonominya.  Namun, produksi shale gas ini telah memicu penurunan harga sumber energi lainnya. Penurunan harga batu bara terjadi sejak tahun 2008, selain itu harga minyak juga terus turun karena permintaan minyak mentah juga terus menurun.

Prediksi Dampak

Analis internasional memperkirakan bahwa penurunan harga minyak internasional ini akan menguntungkan bagi negara-negara yang berstatus net importer minyak. Positifnya lagi diperkirakan perekonomian China akan membaik karena industri China masih cukup bergantung terhadap minyak bumi sebagai sumber energi. Perbaikan ekonomi China diharapkan bisa membantu mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia karena China adalah mitra dagang utama Indonesia saat ini.

Namun di sisi lain kita perlu mewaspadai kemungkinan contagion dari  krisis di Timur Tengah dan Rusia. Rusia dan negara-negara di Timur Tengah pendapatannya sangat tergantung pada minyak bumi. Kejatuhan harga minyak ini berpotensi juga menekan perekonomian negara-negara tersebut dan berpotensi krisis. Krisis di dua wilayah tersebut juga dapat berimbas negatif pada Indonesia di tengah turbulensi global.

Dampak lain yang perlu diperhitungkan juga terkait dengan dampaknya terhadap roadmap energi terbarukan. Harga minyak yang murah akan kembali mendistorsi insentif untuk mengembangkan energi terbarukan. Wacana pengembangan shale gas di Indonesia pun semakin kencang karena disinyalir bahwa Indonesia pun memiliki potensi cadangan shale gas yang cukup besar. Indonesia pun saat ini masih mengandalkan pada pendapatan dari ekspor LNG (gas alam cair). Ekspor LNG Indonesia akan terancam berkurang. Selain ekspor LNG juga terkait ekspor batu bara. Dengan demikian, penurunan harga minyak mentah dunia dan revolusi shale gas ini memiliki dua sisi, yaitu dapat menguntungkan dan merugikan. Pekerjaan rumah kita berarti adalah membuat keuntungan lebih besar dari kerugian atau net benefit yang positif. Untuk itu respon kebijakan menghadapi hal ini lah kunci apakah kita akan menjadi winner atau losser dari perubahan yang terjadi.

Respon Kebijakan

Langkah-langkah kebijakan yang dapat dilakukan adalah sebagai berikut. Pertama, penurunan harga minyak bisa dimanfaatkan untuk mengakumulasi stok minyak di domestik dengan diasumsikan kita dapat membangun kilang minyak dan mengolahnya. Kedua, penurunan harga minyak harus disertai kebijakan industri yang memadai agar penurunan harga minyak dapat mendorong perkembangan industri nasional. Momentum penurunan harga minyak diharapkan memiliki supply side effect. Penurunan harga minyak diharapkan dapat juga meningkatkan produktivitas. Realokasi sumber daya diharapkan lebih meningkatkan produkitvitas. Kebijakan di bidang infrastruktur dan sektor riil perlu terus diaplikasikan untuk mendorong terjadinya efek dari sisi suplai. Ketiga, diperlukan reformasi dalam kebijakan subsidi energi. Selama ini subsidi energi telah mendominasi total subsidi (hampir 75%), sehingga momentum penurunan harga minyak ini perlu ditanggapi dengan kebijakan subsidi yang lebih terarah dan tepat sasaran. Metode fixed subsidy yang saat ini telah dilakukan perlu lebih diperbaiki lagi untuk meminimalisir dampak negatif terhadap ketidakpastian harga dan mendapatkan manfaat dari momentum penurunan harga minyak. Dengan fixed subsidy penurunan harga minyak menjadi kurang bisa dimanfaatkan juga jika ternyata harga minyak turun jauh melampaui ekspketasi pemerintah.

Kebijakan lainnya yang diperlukan yaitu poin keempat adalah kebijakan untuk menjaga kestabilan dari sektor energi lainnya permintaan domestik untuk sektor energi yang terpengaruh negatif dari revolusi shale gas perlu terus ditingkatkan dengan cara melakukan energy mix yang tepat. Diversifikasi energi yang tepat diharapkan bisa meningkatkan ketahanan energi dan membantu efisiensi biaya dari sektor riil sehingga dapat membantu meningkatkan daya saing sektor riil. Keempat, roadmap energi terbarukan tetap harus berjalan. Insentif bagi energi terbarukan tetap perlu ditingkatkan. Meskipun shale gas lebih bersih dari batu bara dari sisi polusi yang ditimbulkan, namun energi terbarukan tetap lebih ramah lingkungan. Kelima, ketegasan terhadap mafia migas perlu terus diperkuat. Potensi shale gas dengan kondisi ketidakpastian hukum yang tinggi hanya akan mengulang sejarah eksploitasi Sumber Daya Alam yang tidak mensejahterakan masyarakat luas. Amanat UUD 1945 mengingatkan bahwa sumber daya alam harus mengutamakan kepentingan nasional dan bermanfaat bagi hajat hidup orang banyak. Kita mengharapkan produktivitas bangsa dan kesejahteraan masyarakat meningkat untuk setiap lapisan masyarakat.

Screen Shot 2015-01-31 at 7.35.39 PM

Penulis Dr. Telisa Aulia Falianty adalah Ketua Program Studi Magister Perencanaan dan Kebijakan Publik FEUI (Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Indonesia)

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