Presiden Jokowi meninjau pembangunan jalan tol lintas Sumatra Pekanbaru-Dumai Kota Pekanbaru, Minggu (23/7). (Foto: Setkab)

Prediksi Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia 2018

Analisa Departemen Keuangan menyatakan perekonomian dunia diperkirakan terus tumbuh, meskipun masih terdapat beberapa tantangan dan risiko: China economic rebalancing, low commodity prices, security & geo politic climate, change & natural disaster, protectionism, ageing population, monetary. Kondisi membuat perekonomian Indonesia juga akan melanjutkan pertumbuhannya pada tahun 2018 hingga 5,4 persen.

Perkiraan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia(%yoy)

sumber: WEO Oct 2017 & Kemenkeu

Volume perdagangan dunia dan harga komoditas diperkirakan akan meningkat seiring membaiknya pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia. Namun di 2018 diperkirakan melambat seiring dengan berlanjutnya moderasi Tiongkok dan bayangan proteksionisme. Sektor konstruksi tumbuh tinggi 6,5%, sejalan dengan akselerasi infrastruktur. Prospek pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia ke depan sangat baik dan berpotensi di atas tren global.

Faktor-faktor yang menjadi pendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia ini adalah: di tahun 2016, pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia sudah menemukan momentum pemulihan, di saat tren global masih melambat. Kedepan, pertumbuhan akan melanjutkan tren peningkatan a.l. didukung sektor domestik yang sehat dan dukungan pemerintah pada aktivitas yang menunjang produktivitas (e.g. infrastruktur). Risiko perekonomian global masih harus terus diwaspadai agar sektor eksternal kondusif dan confidence terjaga.

Snapshot pertumbuhan semester pertama 2017:

Tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi di tahun 2017 sehat dan stabil, Permintaan domestik masih menjadi motor untuk melajunya pertumbuhan ekonomi. Kinerja perdagangan internasional positif, ekspor tumbuh 5,8 persen dan impor tumbuh 2,8 persen konsumsi rumah tangga tumbuh 5,0 persen. Pembentukan Modal Tetap Bruto (PMTB) tumbuh 5,1 persen. Sektor primer tumbuh baik, dengan sektor pertambangan yang mencatatkan pertumbuhan positif. Sektor konstruksi tumbuh tinggi 6,5 persen, sejalan dengan akselerasi infrastruktur. Sektor jasa melanjutkan tren peningkatan terutama transportasi dan informatika, yang juga terdorong oleh percepatan infrastruktur. Sektor industri pengolahan tumbuh melambat 3,9 persen menguatkan perlunya revitalisasi.

Selama Januari hingga September 2017 juga terjadi beberapa perubahan signifikan. Berakhirnya penyesuaian tariff listrik diakhir semester I 2017 menyebabkan tekanan inflasi administered price sedikit menurun. Core inflation masih dapat terjaga pada kisaran 3 persen (yoy). Inflasi volatile food masih dapat terjaga pada tingkat yang rendah dengan rata-rata Januari-September 2017 mencapai 2,47 persen (yoy).  Hal ini disebabkan adanya koordinasi kebijakan fiskal, moneter,dan sektor riil yang dilakukan secara baik.

Seiring dengan perbaikan ekonomi negara mitra dagang utama dan perbaikan harga komoditas, kinerja perdagangan internasional Indonesia meningkat. Neraca Perdagangan September 2017 tercatat mengalami surplus sebesar USD 1,76 miliar, tercatat sebagai surplus tertinggi sejak tahun 2012. Secara kumulatif, Neraca Perdagangan Indonesia tercatat surplus sebesar USD 10,87 miliar, melampaui surplus setahun di tahun 2016 yang sebesar USD 9,53 miliar.

Dengan semua kondisi diatas, Indonesia memasuki tahun 2018 dengan keyakinan akan adanya harapan untuk kemajuan dan kestabilan ekonomi yang kuat dengan tetap mewaspadai kondisi global eksternal.(em)

Penulis Fadjar Ari Dewanto adalah Advisor Lepmida (Lembaga Pengembangan Manajemen dan Investasi Daerah)

 

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  92. Nothing makes him more happy than reading a newspaper underneath a tree.

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